Oregon’s rapidly growing COVID-19 wave expected to peak in June, new mask mandate unlikely

Oregon’s current COVID-19 wave is growing rapidly, with cases and hospitalizations roughly doubling over the past month.

“Our surveillance shows that the predominant strain in Oregon, omicron variant BA.2, remains highly transmissible and widespread statewide,” Dr. Dean Sidelinger, state health officer and epidemiologist, said at a news conference Wednesday.

“Unfortunately, the virus continues to spread throughout our state. If you are in a gathering of people outside your home, sooner or later you will be exposed to the virus,” he said.

Oregon should make it through this wave, which is expected to peak on June 10, without having to reimpose mandates such as mask wearing or distancing, Sidelinger said.

Individuals, however, should assess their own risks and those of their families when deciding whether to wear masks or avoid crowds, he said.

Cases, hospitalizations, test positivity increasing

Over the past four weeks, test positivity has increased from 7% to 11.4%.

COVID-19 cases more than doubled during that period, from a rolling 7-day average of 600 to 1,350 cases per day.

That likely represents a small percentage of actual cases, because many people with COVID-19 test at home or do not test at all, Sidelinger said.

“We know that most cases are not being reported to public health,” he said.

And, over the past month, COVID-19 hospitalizations statewide have increased from 110 to 251.

Modeling from Oregon Health & Science University predicts that COVID-19 hospitalizations will peak at around 321, about a third of the peak during the delta and omicron waves.

“OHA is optimistic that the overall number of Oregon’s hospitalized patients with COVID-19 will not exceed our hospital system’s ability to care for them,” Sidelinger said.

After this COVID-19 wave

Right now, Oregon is facing a predominance of the omicron BA.2 subvariant. What comes after that is harder to predict, Sidelinger said.

OHA is tracking new subvariants, including omicron BA.4 and Omicron BA.5, Sidelinger said.

The pair of Omicron subvariants has raised the possibility that survivors of earlier omicron strains could get reinfected.

“We expect additional subvariants to show up in Oregon,” Sidelinger said. “Those are slightly more transmissible. We don’t anticipate more severe disease.”

Tracy Loew is a reporter at the Statesman Journal. She can be reached at tloew@statesmanjournal.com, 503-399-6779 or on Twitter at@Tracy_Loew.