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ERCOT projects Texas will break electricity demand record this week

The grid operator and Public Utility Commission remain confident in stability of Texas’ power grid.

Update:
12:05 p.m., to correct the date of a reported outage.

AUSTIN — The operator of Texas’ power grid is projecting record-breaking electricity demand this week as temperatures soar to near 100 degrees or above across Texas.

For the next four days, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas — or ERCOT — is projecting daily peaks in electricity demand above 75,000 megawatts. Each peak would be a record, slightly above the August 2019 record of 74,820 megawatts.

Despite ERCOT’s projection of extremely high electricity demand, a statement from the agency said that officials do not expect any brownouts or calls for Texans to reduce electricity use.

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“ERCOT expects sufficient generation to meet forecasted demand,” a statement from ERCOT said.

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While Texas could see the electricity demand record broken as soon as Tuesday, when demand is predicted to hit 75,434 megawatts in the late afternoon, it would still be below the seasonal high for summer that ERCOT projected in a recent resource assessment.

“The grid is performing as expected, with sufficient power generation to meet demand this summer,” Public Utility Commission Chairman Peter Lake said in an emailed statement.

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The grid operator expects there to be ample power generation this summer despite more electricity being used than ever. New power production facilities, especially renewable wind and solar, continue to add generation to a grid that faced near collapse in the February 2021 storm that killed more than 200 Texans.

ERCOT has posted no warnings so far for this latest heat wave and reported no major outages since the grid lost about 2,365 megawatts of power production just at about 1 p.m. Saturday. The source of that outage was unclear Monday.

The Dallas-Fort Worth area is forecast to see temperatures in the high 90s all week, which will contribute to the dizzyingly high electric demand as air conditioners work overtime.

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Doug Lewin, an Austin-based energy consultant, said that the grid should remain stable as long as the state’s natural gas power plants remain operational.

“It’s the thermal plants that haven’t had a full season of scheduled maintenance. Are they ready or will they start breaking like what we experienced on May 13?” said Lewin, referencing ERCOT’s electricity conservation warning that leaders later downplayed as a simple request.

Lewin said the most likely time for something similar to happen would be on Friday, when temperatures in Dallas and Houston are forecast to break triple digits.