Don’t sweat blackout risk in Michigan’s summer heat waves, experts say

Power line

A power line in Grand Rapids, Michigan. (Joel Bissell | MLive.com)

LANSING, MI – Summertime power outages across Michigan are more likely to happen because of severe storms than from rolling blackouts during heat waves, experts say.

The risk of rolling blackouts in the Midwest during heat waves is unlikely to hit Michigan residents, both industry officials and independent experts said. In fact, the odds are greater that Michigan’s power producers will be needed to help bolster other parts of the interconnected Midwest power grid.

“Michigan is in a good place for the summer. You know, while there’s challenges, and maybe a little bit higher level of challenges this summer both with climate change and more severe weather, and the regional power situation, the utilities are well-positioned to provide reliable power this summer,” said James Gignac, senior Midwest energy analyst for the Union of Concerned Scientists.

“And one of the strengths of our interconnected power grid is that states can share electricity with each other. And so, Michigan can support other states when needed and vice versa.”

But the risk of rolling blackouts during heat waves this summer remains, even if it amounts to a slight chance.

Federal and regional energy officials said extreme weather is causing problems for power grids across the country, and officials are concerned that heat waves and drought conditions might lead to rotating blackouts in parts of the United States.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission this spring warned extreme conditions such as “major heat waves, wildfires, hurricanes, and other severe weather events may stress” grid operations, especially in the West, Texas, and parts of the Midwest.

Energy officials in Texas already reported a stressed system earlier this month, when they asked people there to conserve energy use during an oppressive heat wave by postponing running major appliances and pool pumps between 2 and 8 p.m., and dialing back their air-conditioner settings by a few degrees.

Related: Michigan’s weather this week: It’s very warm to hot, and only a hope of rain

In the Midwest, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) also warned there could be power shortages across its massive footprint that covers 15 states and one Canadian province, stretching from the northern reaches of Manitoba all the way to the most southern tip of Louisiana. But industry insiders and watchdog scientists said Michigan’s risk of electricity shortages is less than other places throughout the shared power grid.

Melissa Seymour, MISO’s vice president of external affairs, last month told Michigan lawmakers several areas in the grid operator’s area fell short of having enough power capacity to meet maximum customer demand plus a reserve margin in case of unexpected events. She said there remains a “potential need for emergency procedures” to keep the grid system in balance during extreme weather like heat waves.

Seymour said that can include buying electricity from neighboring regional grids – like the PJM regional grid operator that covers portions of 13 states and Washington, D.C. – and asking large manufacturing facilities to scale back their use.

“Temporary coordinated power outages are extremely rare, and a last-step emergency measure implemented to protect the electric grid,” she said during a Michigan House Energy Committee hearing on June 8.

Officials at Michigan’s largest energy utility said customers shouldn’t worry whether the grid will crash under extreme demand, like during the hottest summer days when air conditioners are running everywhere.

Brandon Hofmeister, Consumers Energy’s senior vice president for governmental, regulatory, and public affairs, said Michigan power producers actually export a lot of electricity to other parts of the Midwest which helps lower bills for customers in Michigan. And while the risk of rolling blackouts is statistically greater this year, he said it is “incredibly unlikely to happen.”

He said the chances are much greater for damaging storms and strong winds to knock out power in Michigan.

“Our electric system because of cost reasons, historically has been up in the air and when you have severe weather, the poles can be impacted, trees can be impacted. And so that level of extreme weather we have certainly seen an uptick in in the last several years,” Hofmeister said.

“And we are investing billions of dollars to harden our system to prevent those outages and to ensure when we do have an outage that people’s power is restored promptly, as promptly as possible. But, with that, those outages are almost certain to happen. In the next year or two, there will be storms that cause power outages in Michigan.”

Despite a minimal risk of brownouts or rolling blackouts, energy experts said the power shortage concern in other parts of the MISO grid underscores the need to hook up new energy sources like large-scale solar fields as quickly as possible.

The thinning of that buffer margin of available power across MISO’s footprint on days with the greatest demand remains a concern as the energy industry shifts toward a lower-carbon future and more electric vehicles hit the road.

“That’s one of the reasons that we have a tighter power supply situation this summer, because as our older, uneconomic power plants are closing, we need to have these new resources be able to come online faster,” Gignac said.

Seymour confirmed MISO experienced a “lag in retirements of resources and bringing new resources online.”

“The bottom line is we do need more resources in all of the regions as we retire resources. That’s kind of a foundational thing that I think we’re going to be seeing as we transition our fleet over time. We just need to mind this gap between the resources that are being retired and the ones that are coming online because we’re going to need to make up the gap,” she said.

Other energy market observers say there are many factors at play during the energy transition, like attorney Valerie Brader, who formerly served as the head of Michigan’s Agency for Energy under the Snyder administration. She said most energy watchers have a “pet answer” to why there are shortfalls.

“So, folks who love nuclear power will say it’s because you shut down nuclear plants. Folks who, you know, are pro renewable will say it’s because you didn’t bring your renewables online fast enough. Folks who are sort of traditional fossil fuel folks will say it’s because you retire too much fossil fuel. And then others say it’s because our demand is rising because of climate change,” Brader said.

All those perspectives factor into planning the ongoing energy transition away from carbon-heavy sources, she said.

“The answer is – guess what – when you’re talking about why doesn’t my supply match with my demand, everything that affects supply and everything that affects demand is part of the equation, right?”

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