The Nuclear Posture in Review

Today’s nuclear landscape is more complicated than ever. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, accompanied by overt threats of nuclear use, has renewed questions about U.S. nuclear strategy and what to do if deterrence fails. China’s rapid expansion of nuclear modernization projects poses new and unique challenges for multi-actor deterrence. The recent collapse of several arms control agreements has led to deep questions about the future of strategic cooperation between the United States and its adversaries. And fulfilling promises to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in the U.S. security strategy is increasingly difficult given the reality of the current strategic environment. With growing anticipation of the U.S. Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) and the rollout of “integrated deterrence” as a guiding principle for U.S. strategy, the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) will host a conversation to unpack questions about the future of deterrence, arms control, and the creation of U.S. nuclear strategy.

Agenda

10:00 AM        Opening Remarks

Dr. Heather Williams, Director, CSIS PONI 

What are the military, political, technological, and economic tools that go into integrated deterrence? Who is the target audience of “integrated deterrence” in U.S. strategy- adversaries or allies? How will integrated deterrence shape allies’ views of U.S. extended deterrence commitments? What are allies’ perspective and proliferation risk? What should the US do in the event of a nuclear deterrence failure?

Chair: 
Dr. Kathleen McInnis, Director, Smart Women Smart Power, CSIS
 
Panelists:  
Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn, Director and Senior Fellow, Defense Program, CNAS 
Tom Nichols, Contributing Writer, The Atlantic
S. Paul Choi, Managing Director & Principal Advisor, StratWays Group

11:45 PM      Lunch  
 
12:45 PM      Panel 2: The NPR Process and Policy Decisions   

What is the purpose of NPRs, how are NPRs drafted, and how have these processes changed over time? Should future U.S. administrations conduct NPRs, and, if so, how can this process be improved? What impact do changes in NPR have on the deterrence landscape? What can we expect in the 2022 NPR? How do allies and proliferation concerns inform the NPR process?

Chair: 
Kelsey Hartigan, Deputy Director & Senior Fellow, CSIS PONI
 
Panelists:  
Elaine Bunn, Non-Resident Senior Advisor, CSIS PONI
Dr. Robert Soofer, Adjunct Associate Professor, Georgetown University and Non-Resident Senior Associate, CSIS
Greg Weaver, Principal, Strategy to Plans, LLC

2:15 PM        Break  
 
2:30 PM        Panel 3: Integrating Arms Control and Deterrence  

How can arms control and deterrence work in tandem? What is the future of strategic arms control, and how does the ongoing Ukraine crisis impact the prospects for nuclear arms reductions in the short and long term? How are arms control efforts perceived by allies? And how might U.S. arms control policy be perceived by deterrence skeptics?

Chair: 
Dr. Heather Williams, Director & Senior Fellow, CSIS PONI
 
Panelists:  
Rose Gottemoeller, Lecturer, Stanford University
Dr. Brad Roberts, Director, Center for Global and Security Research, LLNL
Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova, Director, International Organizations and Non-Proliferation Program, Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non‑Proliferation

 4:00 PM       End of Conference

This event is made possible by support from Northrop Grumman Corporation.