The U.S. has played a quiet but crucial role as Ukrainian troops have made stunning gains this week in a counteroffensive that dealt an embarrassing blow to Russian forces.
Kyiv’s military strategy, which has allowed it to take back thousands of kilometers worth of Russian-occupied territory within days, is the cumulation of months’ worth of planning helped by U.S. war modeling and expertise.
In addition, artillery and heavy weapons provided by the U.S. have provided immediate firepower and long-term confidence that Ukraine’s troops will remain equipped for the longer fight.
State of play: As of Thursday, Ukrainian troops had taken back nearly all of the Kharkiv province in the northeast and continued to liberate several villages in the southern Kherson region, according to officials in the country.
The gains are part of a two-front counteroffensive that began at the start of September and made major headway in the past week — particularly in Kharkiv, where Ukrainian troops’ lightning-fast advance seemed to catch Russians forces on the back foot and forced them to rapidly retreat.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said earlier this week that Ukrainian forces had retaken 6,000 square kilometers (2,317 square miles) of Russian-held territory since the beginning of the month — about 3,400 kilometers (2,113 miles) of that in the north just in the last week.
How the counteroffensive took shape: The counteroffensive was the result of months of discussions, war strategizing and intelligence sharing between senior U.S. and Ukrainian officials, as well as a steady buildup of Ukrainian firepower with the help of U.S. weapons shipments, according to defense officials and experts.
Zelensky in midsummer relayed to his top military brass that he wanted to make a major push to show that Ukraine could kick back at the Russian incursion, and he had his generals create a plan for a broad offensive across the south and east, CNN first reported.
The strategy, which was then shared with U.S. defense officials, was assessed to likely fail, and the Ukrainians went back to the drawing board, according to The New York Times.
The role of weapons: The carefully planned operations were then bolstered by U.S. weapons, including precision armaments such as the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, which allows the Ukrainians to precisely strike and take out high-value Kremlin targets, said Steven Horrell, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis.
As of this week, the U.S. has committed nearly $15 billion in lethal aid to Ukraine since the start of the Feb. 24 invasion.
And since April, the U.S. government has also led a 50-country effort known as the Ukraine Contact Group to coordinate the flow of military assistance to Kyiv.
Not over yet: Despite Ukraine’s recent successes — with country officials calling it one of the major turning points of the war — others have warned the fight is still far from over.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said Wednesday he thinks a peace deal to end the conflict isn’t likely anytime soon
And Biden administration officials have been hesitant to label the quick Ukrainian territorial gains as a turning point in the war.
U.S. defense officials point out that the Russians still have large amounts of manpower and weapons in Ukraine and still hold important territory, including key cities and towns in the easternmost Luhansk region.
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