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The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates yet again, even as fears increase that it could trigger a recession in the U.S. 

The expected interest rate increase: Another 0.75 percentage points 

Then why are they doing it?: To slow inflation and hopefully bring prices down. Increasing interest rates can help, but it’s an incredibly tricky balance not to send the U.S. into a recession. 

More on the difficult balance the Federal Reserve must weigh, via The Hill’s Sylvan Lane 

Watch the announcement: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is holding a news conference at 2:30 p.m. C-SPAN livestream 

Via CNBC’s Carlos Waters 

Via The Hill’s Alexander Bolton 

IT'S WEDNESDAY. I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here. 

McDonald’s U.S. Archways to Opportunity® program has increased access to education for more than 72,000 people as of year-end 2021. Since its inception, the program has awarded $165M in high school and college tuition assistance. Click here to learn how McDonald’s and its Franchisees are helping to support better futures for their respective employees and their families.  

President Biden has tested negative for COVID-19 twice, tweeting a picture this morning of his rapid test.  

Biden tweeted: “Back to the Oval. Thanks to Doc for the good care, and to all of you for your support.” Photo of his negative COVID-19 test 

From Biden’s doctor: “Biden completed his five-day course of PAXLOVID 36 hours ago. As of this morning, he has completed his five full days of isolation. He remains fever-free and he discontinued use of any acetaminophen … His symptoms have been steadily improving, and are almost completely resolved.”

Read the full memo from Biden’s doctor 

President Biden delivered remarks from the Rose Garden after his negative COVID-19 test. Watch 

From CNN’s Kevin Liptak 

Via The Washington Post’s Carol D. Leonnig, Devlin Barrett, Josh Dawsey and Spencer S. Hsu, “The Justice Department is investigating President Donald Trump’s actions as part of its criminal probe of efforts to overturn the 2020 election results, according to four people familiar with the matter.”   

What we know, according to two Post sources: “Prosecutors who are questioning witnesses before a grand jury — including two top aides to Vice President Mike Pence — have asked in recent days about conversations with Trump, his lawyers, and others in his inner circle who sought to substitute Trump allies for certified electors from some states Joe Biden won.”

The significance of this development — and what could happen now 

“Thursday’s hearing furthered insight into Trump’s state of mind the day of the riot and after as he removed language from a Jan. 6 address asking rioters to leave the Capitol and on Jan. 7 as he slashed language from an address condemning their actions and struggled to say the election was over.”

Some helpful context of where the probe stands, via The Hill’s Rebecca Beitsch and Harper Neidig   

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Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who has kept a low profile since suspending her 2020 presidential campaign, is slowly stepping into spotlight again — and in key states. 

Which states?: Wisconsin. Michigan. Pennsylvania. 

Warren is in a pretty interesting spot: “The Warren momentum that emerged last cycle is still ever-present. [President Biden] and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), his closest competitor for the 2020 nomination, will both be in their 80s by 2024. And some see a lane clearly marked for Warren, one of just a handful of female progressives thought of as potential presidential contenders — if she wants it.”  

Keep in mind: Warren is up for reelection to the Senate in 2024. She would have to choose between reelection and a potential presidential bid.  

More on where Warren stands, via The Hill’s Hanna Trudo

75 percent of Democratic voters do not want President Biden as their party’s 2024 presidential nominee in 2024, according to a new CNN poll.  

For context: Earlier this year, roughly half of Democratic voters said they wanted another nominee for 2024.    

The full CNN poll 

The gist of former President Trump’s address — and how it was received, via The Hill’s Brett Samuels 

“The commissioner of the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, Ashwin Vasan, called on the World Health Organization (WHO) to rename monkeypox to prevent the ‘potentially devastating and stigmatizing effects’ that the virus’s name could bring about.” More from Vasan’s letter to the WHO 

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“Later Night” host Seth Meyers announced that he tested positive for COVID-19 and will cancel his shows for the rest of the week. 

Keep in mind: This is the second time this year that Meyers has tested positive for COVID-19 and had to cancel shows. He is fully vaccinated, FWIW.  

Cases to date: 90.3 million 

Death toll: 1,022,668 

Current hospitalizations:  35,406

Shots administered: 601 million 

Fully vaccinated: 67.2 percent of Americans 

CDC data here.

“When we invest in our team, we also invest in our community.” This companywide belief is evident in programs like Archways to Opportunity® which offers tuition assistance and career support. Learn more about the program’s impact to date here.  

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Bloomberg’s Josh Wingrove tweeted, “Outside the White House: a demonstration calling for cancellation of student debt. Biden has said he will make a decision by the end of next month.” Photo of the demonstration 

The House and Senate are in. President Biden is isolating at the White House. Vice President Harris is in Washington, D.C., with no public events scheduled. 

• 9:30 a.m.: Biden received his daily briefing. 
• 11:30 a.m.: Two Senate votes. Today’s Senate agenda 
• 11:30 a.m.: First House votes of the day. Today’s House agenda 
• 4 p.m.: Last House votes of the day. 
• 4:30 p.m.: One Senate roll call vote. 
• Thursday: The annual Congressional Baseball Game at Nationals Park. Tickets and info 

All times Eastern. 

• 10 a.m.: Gun manufacturing executives testified on gun violence. Watch 
• 11:30 a.m.: Biden delivered remarks from the Rose Garden. Livestream 
• 3 p.m.: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre gives a press briefing. Livestream

Today is National Crème Brûlée Day! 

And because you read this far, here’s a dog intently watching golf. 

Send comments, story ideas and events for our radar to cmartel@thehill.com and follow along on Twitter and Facebook. A friend forward this to you? Subscribe here.