Washington’s next big election

©Greg Nash

Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, tracking all things related to elections. You can expect this newsletter in your inbox every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday as we make sense of this year’s midterm elections and look ahead to 2024.

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Who will lead the House and Senate?

© AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite

Democrats have secured their Senate majority. Republicans narrowly won control of the House. And while the Senate race in Georgia won’t be decided for a few more weeks, the 2022 midterm elections are, for the most part, over.

Now Washington is turning its attention to a different set of elections that will decide who will lead the two parties in Congress for at least the next two years.

Republican challengers: On Wednesday, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) secured another term in his post as the Senate’s top Republican, overcoming a last-minute challenge from Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who led the GOP’s Senate campaign operation through a disappointing cycle that saw the party blow an opportunity to flip control of the upper chamber.

A more dramatic situation is unfolding on the House side. Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) won his conference’s nomination to be the next House speaker this week, beating out a protest challenge from Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) backed by members of the conservative House Freedom Caucus.

McCarthy is widely expected to clinch the top job when the full chamber votes on Jan. 3. But he can only spare a handful of Republican defections in that vote, meaning he’ll have some work to do if he hopes to bring his conference into line.

End of an era: Meanwhile, a shockwave tore through Democratic politics on Thursday when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) announced that she would step down from her leadership post next year to clear the way for a new generation of lawmakers.

Pelosi’s announcement marks the end of two decades of her stewardship over the House Democratic Caucus and the end of an era for the most powerful woman in U.S. political history. She’ll stay in Congress indefinitely as a back-bencher, though she is expected to play a key mentorship role for her eventual successor.

Favored to succeed Pelosi in the top House Democratic role is Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), who’s worked for months to build up support for the job.

COUNTDOWN

719

Days until the 2024 presidential election

Democrats’ celebrity campaign in Georgia 

© Greg Nash

Georgia Democrats are hoping to draw some big names to Georgia in the coming weeks as they look to push Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) over the finish line in his runoff campaign against Herschel Walker.

Among those on Democrats’ wishlist is former President Obama, who traveled to Georgia last month ahead of the Nov. 8 general election to stump for Warnock. So far, Obama hasn’t announced any official plans to return to the Peach State, but one source told The Hill that he’s likely to head back ahead of the Dec. 6 runoff.

The push to get high-profile surrogates out for Warnock underscores the high-stakes and deeply competitive nature of the runoff in Georgia. While Democrats have already secured a majority in the Senate, a win in Georgia would allow the party to expand that majority, giving them more flexibility to do things like confirm federal judges.

And figures like Obama remain deeply popular among both Democrats and independents, who will play a pivotal role in the runoff. Warnock and his party are also highlighting Walker’s ties to former President Trump, who just this week announced that he would seek the 2024 Republican presidential nod. One ad from Warnock’s team simply features a clip of Trump urging his supporters to vote for Walker during his Tuesday campaign announcement.

Of course, the Senate runoff remains in true toss-up territory. The results from the Nov. 8 election showed Warnock leading Walker by less than 1 percentage point, or little more than 36,000 votes. Neither candidate managed to receive the majority vote needed to win the election outright.

Walker also has his own powerful allies, most notably Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who easily won his reelection bid earlier this month. Kemp is loaning his massive get-out-the-vote operation to Senate Leadership Fund, the McConnell-aligned super PAC, in an effort to boost Walker’s runoff campaign.

THE HOUSE RACES WE'RE STILL WAITING ON

We know that Republicans have regained their majority in the lower chamber, but nine days after Election Day, we are still waiting on the results from a number of uncalled House races.

Here are the races we’re waiting on:

AK-AL: Alaska’s ranked choice voting has left the race between Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich, and Libertarian Chris Bye unresolved as of now.

CA-03: An open-seat race between Republican Kevin Kiley and Democrat Kermit Jones.

CA-13: An open-seat race between Republican John Duarte and Democrat Adam Gray.

CA-22: Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) is defending his seat from a challenge by Democrat Rudy Salas.

CA-47: Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) is trying to fend off a challenge from Republican Scott Baugh.

CO-03: Rep. Lauren Boeberet (D-Colo.) is locked in a tight race against Democrat Adam Frisch

NEW NRSC LEADERSHIP

New leadership is starting to take hold in the campaign committees ahead of the 2024 campaign cycle. On Thursday, the National Republican Senate Committee announced Jason Thielman, a top aide to the committee’s new Chairman Steve Danies (R-Mont.), will serve as committee’s executive director for the cycle.

Thielman has served as an aide to Daines since he was first elected to the House in 2012.

“It’s been the honor of my life to work alongside Steve for 12 years to serve the people of Montana. We have a historic opportunity to build a lasting Republican Senate Majority, and I'm excited to lead our team in that effort,” Thielman said in a statement obtained by The Hill.

That’s it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill’s Campaign page for the latest news and coverage. See you next week.