2024 Senate battle begins to take shape

© Greg Nash

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Battle for Senate comes into view

© Greg Nash

With the end of 2022 rapidly approaching, all eyes are starting to turn to 2024. Yes, there’s a presidential election, but there’s also a dynamic Senate map coming into view.

As our Al Weaver notes, 10 GOP-held seats and 23 Democratic-held seats are up for reelection in two years, and questions remain over what kind of strategy the GOP will employ heading into the next election and whether Democrats will be able to retain their slim majority. 

The Trump factor: Among the questions Al poses include how Republicans will tackle what Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) bemoaned as “candidate quality” concerns. A number of former President Trump’s endorsees or Trump-aligned candidates struggled during the November midterms as many of them were plagued by negative headlines, scandals or grueling primaries. And while many of those Senate races in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and elsewhere proved to still be close, the candidates were ultimately unable to move past personal baggage.

Some Republicans blame that hands-off approach during the primaries for costing them valuable Senate seats, but the question remains heading into 2024 about how the GOP will get involved in their own primaries, if at all, and what kind of influence Trump will still have among voters.

Dems face steep odds: At the same time, Democrats are staring down a math problem: More than two-thirds of the Senate reelection map are Senate Democrats, meaning that the party will be more on the defensive than before.

And while some Senate Democrats are still mulling over whether to run again, the GOP will have some prime pickup opportunities in Arizona, Nevada, Montana, Pennsylvania and West Virginia – that’s if they solve their candidate quality concerns. One of the big question marks here, for Democrats, however, is Sen. Krysten Sinema (Ariz.), who most recently announced she was changing party affiliation from Democrat to Independent.

The Sinema question: As Al notes, it’s unclear if Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) will back another Sinema reelection bid if she officially announces one, or if he would be open to backing a Democrat to challenge Sinema in the general election. While Sinema is likely to face a difficult path ahead should she encounter both Republican and Democratic challengers in the Arizona Senate race, strategists are suggesting not to count her out anyway.

“It’s tough. It’s why you run as a Republican or run as a Democrat,” Barrett Marson, a Phoenix-based GOP strategist, told Al. “But Sen. Sinema certainly has shown an ability to defy odds and win elections, close as they may be, in the state and has tapped into a lot of angst.” 

COUNTDOWN

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Days until the 2024 presidential election

Santos in hot water  

© Associated Press/John Locher

Rep.-elect George Santos (R-N.Y.), who was one of several Long Island Republicans to turns Democratic-held congressional seats red last month, is embroiled in controversy that he fabricated key components of his personal and professional history while he was on the campaign trail.

A story published earlier this month by The New York Times reported that Santos had not attended Baruch College, a college in New York, as he had once suggested, nor that he had worked for Goldman Sachs or Citigroup. The piece also reported that Santos was charged with a crime in Brazil, among other issues that were raised during the Times investigation.

In an interview with The New York Post published on Monday, Santos admitted to fabricating parts of his personal story, saying, for instance, when asked about education “I didn’t graduate from any institution of higher learning. I’m embarrassed and sorry for having embellished my resume.”

Dems call for him to resign: Santos refuted other parts of the Times report, including being charged in Brazil, while explaining other areas of his personal identity. “I never claimed to be Jewish,” Santos told the Post. “I am Catholic. Because I learned my maternal family had a Jewish background I said I was ‘Jew-ish.'”

As our Julia Mueller writes, Democrats are urging for the congressman-elect to step down amid the rising controversy while the Democratic candidate who ran against him and lost in November, Robert Zimmerman, is pushing him to resign and run in a special election against him for the seat.

“George, if that’s even your real name, if you’re so convinced that #NY3 voters still trust you - resign & run against me again in a special election. Face the voters with your real past & answer questions about your criminal history. Let the voters decide,” Zimmerman tweeted on Tuesday.

While it’s unclear if Santos will step down or commit to running in a special election against Zimmerman, the congressman-elect suggested in his interview with the Post that his fabrications wouldn’t impact the way he handles his job in Congress.

“I intend to deliver on the promises I made during the campaign — fighting crime, fighting to lower inflation, improving education,” Santos told the Post. 

That’s it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill’s Campaign page for the latest news and coverage. See you Thursday.