George Santos’ worsening headache

© Madeline Monroe/Associated Press-Mary Altaffer 

Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, tracking all things related to the 2022 midterm elections. You can expect this newsletter in your inbox every Tuesday and Thursday as we make sense of this year’s elections and look ahead to 2024. 

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Santos scandal backs Republicans into corner

© Greg Nash/Mary Altaffer 

The list of controversies surrounding Rep.-elect George Santos (R-N.Y.) is only getting longer.

Santos, who won a longshot bid to represent New York’s 3rd Congressional District last month, has been facing mounting pressure to explain himself in the face of revelations that he exaggerated or lied about his professional resume and personal life, including his education, business record and heritage.

Piling up: He’s set to be sworn into Congress next week when the House reconvenes, and there aren’t any signs that he is considering stepping aside. But it’s hard to see things getting easier for him anytime soon. Federal and local prosecutors are investigating him for any potential crimes involving lies about his background and finances, fellow Rep.-elect Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) has called for an ethics investigation into Santos, and Democrats are calling on him to resign from his post before he formally takes office.

Santos himself has admitted to embellishing parts of his resume and lying about other things, like graduating from Baruch College. But he has yet to address other questions, including how he apparently amassed his personal wealth despite recent financial problems, his assertion about connections to victims of the Pulse nightclub shooting, work with an animal rescue group and his claims of Jewish heritage. 

Republicans in a pickle: For now, at least, Republican leaders in the House are keeping quiet on Santos. And their dilemma is obvious. On one hand, standing too firmly with Santos amid the controversies could put top House Republicans on the defensive as the GOP is about to take control of the lower chamber. On the other, calling for him to step aside would threaten to shrink their already-narrow House majority.

Either way, the Santos drama has become a headache for Republicans during a time when they would rather be celebrating recapturing the House after spending four years in the minority.

COUNTDOWN

677

Days until the 2024 presidential election

Breaking out of Arizona 

© AP/Matt York

Democrats scored another victory in Arizona on Thursday when the results of a recount reaffirmed Kris Mayes’ victory over Republican Abraham Hamadeh in the race to become the state’s next attorney general.

The contest was one of the closest in the state. Mayes previously led Hamadeh by just 511 votes out of some 2.5 million, triggering an automatic recount under state law. The results of that recount found the race tightening even more; Mayes led her Republican opponent by a scant 280 votes.

It’s a big win for Democrats, who have been locked out of the Arizona attorney general’s office for more than a decade. And it adds to the party’s recent gains in the Grand Canyon State, coming after Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) won reelection to his Senate seat and Democrat Katie Hobbs defeated Republican Kari Lake in the race for governor.

Maye’s win is also another blow to former President Trump, who endorsed Hamadeh in the race. Hamadeh embraced Trump’s claim that the 2020 election was stolen and filed a lawsuit of his own in late November alleging that procedural and tabulation errors in his race were responsible for his loss. That lawsuit was dismissed last week.

And ICYMI: A Maricopa County judge on Tuesday ordered Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake to pay Gov.-elect Katie Hobbs (D) some legal fees related to Lake’s lawsuit challenging her loss to Hobbs. Lake lost that race by a little more than 17,000 votes – a large enough margin to avoid an automatic recount.

REPUBLICANS REGROUP ON ABORTION MESSAGING

Republicans had hoped to make the midterm elections a referendum on Democratic control of Washington, focusing their message on combating rising inflation, securing the southern border and clamping down on perceived rising crime. What they didn’t account for, however, was the outsized impact that abortion rights – including the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade – would have on the final results of the elections, which saw the GOP only narrowly retake the House and blow a chance at recapturing the Senate.

Now, the party is rethinking its messaging on abortion, acknowledging that they may have overlooked an issue that was top of mind for many voters on Election Day.

“It was probably a bigger factor than a lot of people thought,” Ronna McDaniel, the chair of the Republican National Committee (RNC), said in an interview earlier this month with radio talk show host John Catsimatidis. “We’ve got to get conversant on that.”

“We can’t just do an ostrich method and pretend that it doesn’t exist when Democrats are spending $30 million on that message.”

A top issue: Exit polling on Election Day found that abortion was the most important issue for 27 percent of voters, making it the second biggest concern after inflation. In Pennsylvania, especially, the issue resonated with voters; 36 percent of voters named abortion as their top issue, putting it ahead of inflation on the list of concerns.

At the same time, ballot measures dealing with abortion rights won out in a handful of states, including red states like Kentucky and Montana.

That puts the GOP – a party that has aligned itself for decades with opponents of abortion rights – in a tricky position. On one hand, ceding any ground on the issue could land Republicans in hot water with anti-abortion rights conservatives who make up a large chunk of the party’s voter base. On the flip side, maintaining a hardline stance against abortion rights could also cost Republicans in future elections, especially when it comes to expanding their appeal to a broader swath of the electorate.

Still, some conservatives say the party needs to lean into its anti-abortion messaging to draw a clear contrast with Democrats and motivate its conservative base.

“Heading into 2024, it is essential for any pro-life candidate to embrace the issue head-on, clearly defining their own position and contrasting it with the unpopular, extreme, abortion up-until-birth position of their opponent,” Jeanne Mancini, the president of March for Life, told The Hill's Julia Manchester. 

That’s it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill’s Campaign page for the latest news and coverage. See you next week.