It’s Monday. My social media feeds are absolutely filled with Eras Tour footage as Taylor Swift kicks off the final leg of her tour in Miami! 🧣🪩Here’s what’s happening today:

• Trump has overtaken Harris for the first time in the Decision Desk HQ and The Hill election forecast(!)
• We compare this model to other major election forecasters. Bottom line: It’s a total toss-up.
• Trump worked as a fry cook at a McDonald's to mock Harris (but that location was closed to the public.)
• Biden is proposing a rule to force insurers to cover over-the-counter birth control.
• Oh — and Taco Bell is testing out Thai and Indian-inspired Crunchwrap Supremes. 😅

I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send tips, commentary, feedback and cookie recipes to cmartel@thehill.com. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.  

For the first time this cycle, former President Trump has overtaken Vice President Harris in the Decision Desk HQ/The Hill election forecast. 

The new model: Trump has a 52 percent chance of winning the White House while Harris has a 48 percent chance.

How much has the model shifted?: Since late August, DDHQ and The Hill have estimated Harris’s chances of winning around 54 percent to 56 percent; Trump was hovering around a 44 percent to 46 percent chance of winning. On Oct. 17, the model estimated that they were tied.

How to explain the shift: Trump’s polling averages have improved in the key battleground states of Wisconsin and Michigan. Trump already had slight advantages in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. That means of the seven key states likely to determine the election outcome, Harris is now favored only in Pennsylvania.

How does this compare with other election forecasts and polling indexes?:

• 538 gives Trump a 53 percent chance of winning and Harris a 47 percent chance.
• RealClearPolitics’s polling average shows Harris leading Trump by 1 point.
• Pollster Nate Silver favors Trump, giving him a 50.2 percent chance to Harris's 49.5 percent.

Some context from pollster Nate Silver: “The data continues to be pretty negative for Kamala Harris. There are now three recent high-quality national polls that show Donald Trump leading — a difficult circumstance for Harris, given Democrats’ Electoral College disadvantage — and her edge in our national polling average is down to 1.7 points.” Read Silver’s election forecast

🚨But if you take one thing out of this: The race is very much a toss-up. The polling in all seven states remains in the margin of error. The takeaway isn’t that Trump will likely win. It is just how close of a race Nov. 5 will be. It could come down to weather, early voting — or even something like college football game outcomes.

The Hill’s Jared Gans broke down the potential paths that could give Harris or Trump the 270 Electoral College votes necessary to win the presidency. Here are the scenarios:

• Harris wins in the “blue wall” states.
• Harris expands on Biden’s 2020 victory.
• Harris loses Pennsylvania but finds an alternative.
• Trump takes Pennsylvania and the election.
• Trump ekes by without Pennsylvania.
• Trump sweeps the battlegrounds.

©  GIPHY/Kamala Harris

Harris has been trying to put more distance between herself and President Biden, reports The Hill’s Brett Samuels.

Why now?: During two recent interviews, she was unable to say anything specific she would do differently from Biden. Republicans have leaned into this. Since then, she’s shifted gears (with Biden’s blessing!).

How she’s distanced herself from Biden: NBC’s Peter Alexander asked her on Friday what she would do differently.

“To be very candid with you, even including Mike Pence, vice presidents are not critical of their presidents. I think that really, in terms of the tradition of it, and also just going forward, it does not make for a productive and important relationship,” she said.

Harris is stuck between a rock and a hard place: Voters often want change, especially after inflation and the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border over the past several years. She’s not technically an incumbent, but she must balance her role in the Biden administration — and loyalty to her boss ­— while also differentiating herself. 

Harris is hitting the trail with former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney (Wyo.), a signal that she is prioritizing courting Republican voters.

Where?: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. 💻 Livestreams of Harris’s events today

Trump is using this as an opportunity: Trump is attacking Cheney’s appearances — and using them to appeal to Arab Americans by painting Cheney as a war-monger.

©  Doug Mills/The New York Times via AP, Pool

Former President Trump worked at a McDonald's in Pennsylvania on Sunday, frying french fries and handing out orders in the drive-thru.

Why, you may ask?: To troll Harris after spending weeks claiming without evidence that she never worked at the fast food chain. (Harris's campaign has said she did while in college.)

Who was Trump serving?: NBC News reports the McDonald’s was closed to the public during Trump's visit, and the customers he served were vetted by security and the campaign.

Related read from Time: ‘Donald Trump’s Long Love for McDonald’s, Explained’

• ‘Inside the Last-Ditch Hunt by Harris and Trump for Undecided Voters’: The New York Times
• ‘Has Harris Done Enough To Convince Black Men?’: USA Today
• ‘Trump and Harris campaigns spotlight religion in recent appeals to Christian voters’: The Hill

The White House announced a proposal this morning to require insurance companies to cover over-the-counter costs of birth control.

Like?: The Plan B pill, condoms, nonprescription birth control pills and spermicides.

How is this different from the current policy?: The Affordable Care Act requires insurers to cover the cost of prescription contraception. This proposal would expand to birth control without a prescription. The Washington Post has a helpful explainer.

💡 Why this matters politically: This puts the spotlight back on women’s reproductive rights roughly two weeks before the election. The timing was intentional — Democrats hope this forces Republicans to weigh in on the issue.

Disney announced that it will name longtime CEO Bob Iger’s successor in early 2026.

Plus: Former Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman will become chair of board, starting in January. (The Wall Street Journal)

🍎🎃 Celebrate: Today is National Apple Day and National Pumpkin Cheesecake Day! What a perfect fall day!

🍗 Don’t mess with perfection: New York Magazine’s Tammie Teclemariam writes how New York chefs are experimenting with chicken fingers to see, “Can a chicken finger ever be fancy?” (Grub Street)

©  GIPHY/The Office

🌮 I swear I’m not trolling. This is real: Taco Bell has been testing unique Crunchwrap Supreme combinations: the “Indian Buffet,” “Crispy Thai Noodle” and “Southwest Hot CHX.” Here are photos if you don’t believe me 😉 

🎤 Jason and Kylie Kelce brought two of their daughters to their first Taylor Swift concert. 📹 Here’s a video Oh, and there’s a photo of Jason allegedly falling asleep during the concert. 📸 Here’s that photo

The House and Senate are out. President Biden is in Washington. Vice President Harris is in Pennsylvania and will be in Michigan and Wisconsin later today. (all times Eastern)

• Noon: Former President Trump campaigns in Asheville, N.C. 💻 Livestream
• 1:30 p.m.: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre briefs reporters. 💻 Livestream
• 3 p.m.: Trump campaigns in Greenville, N.C. 💻 Livestream
• 4:10 p.m.: Harris campaigns in Birmingham, Mich. 💻 Livestream
• 5:30 p.m.: Biden and first lady Jill Biden deliver remarks at a National Arts and Humanities reception in the East Room of the White House. 💻 Livestream
• 7 p.m.: Trump campaigns in Greenville. Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson joins him. 💻 Livestream
• 8 p.m.: Harris campaigns in Brookfield, Wis. 💻 Livestream
• 11:10 p.m.: Harris returns to Washington.

This poor dog is trying to navigate wearing a cone.

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