GOP FEARS MIDTERM BLOWOUT: Republicans are expressing growing concern that Trump’s falling approval ratings could drag them down in the midterms.
Trump’s approval rating reached a new low for his second term in the Decision Desk HQ polling average, falling to 41.5 percent on Friday. His disapproval simultaneously reached a new high in the average at 56.6 percent.
The party in power has historically lost seats in Congress in most midterm elections, and the president's approval rating is seen as one of the top indicators of how the next election will play out.
The Hill’s Alexander Bolton and Caroline Vakil report that GOP lawmakers said their party’s losses in the off-year elections in Virginia and New Jersey earlier this month should be a wakeup call for Trump and Republican congressional leadership to address voters’ concerns about a slowing economy and high prices.
“If we are where we are today in the beginning of the second quarter [of 2026], then I think we’re in for a really rough time in November,” said retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who represents a battleground state that will host one of the most competitive Senate races next year.
Republicans said they still have time to improve their party’s image with voters, particularly with the rise of far-left candidates within the Democratic party, like New York City’s mayor-elect, Zohran Mamdani.
But they acknowledge that rising health care premiums, which are likely to increase for millions of Americans if Affordable Care Act subsidies are allowed to expire at the end of the year, are a problem for the GOP. Democrats made addressing health care costs central to their argument around the government shutdown, accusing Republicans of ignoring the public’s concern.
A vote is expected in the Senate on extending the subsidies, but the chances of the vote passing seem slim in the face of GOP opposition.
Another reason for concern for Republicans is Democrats’ growing advantage in the generic congressional ballot. They lead by about 5 points in the DDHQ average, in part powered by a Marist Poll that showed Democrats leading by 14 points.
While that result may be an outlier, it adds to other surveys showing reasons for optimism for Democrats.
The stats add more importance to the awaited ruling from the Supreme Court on the legality of Texas’s new congressional map passed ahead of the midterms. Justice Samuel Alito temporarily reinstated the new map, which could add up to five additional Republican-held districts next year, on Friday until the court rules on Texas’s emergency appeal.
GREENE’S EXIT IMPACTS TENNESSEE: The stakes have risen for a special election taking place next week in Tennessee where Democrats are trying to pull off a major upset, following Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-Ga.) stunning announcement Friday that she will resign from her seat in January.
The GOP currently has a narrow 219-213 advantage in the House, only allowing them to lose two of their members in party-line votes.
Greene's decision came after Trump pulled his support for his longtime ally amid a falling-out between the two of them over several issues, most prominently the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files.
Democrats are going all in on the special election to fill former Rep. Mark Green’s (R-Tenn.) seat in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris and Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin both campaigned for state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D), who is facing Republican Matt Van Epps.
If Democrats were to pull off a win, the GOP House majority would narrow even further. That would be a major hurdle to overcome in a district that voted for Trump by more than 20 points last year.
But Democrats say they expect to see an overperformance, keeping the margin to only 10 points, as a win and another positive indicator ahead of 2026.
▪ The Hill: “Trump, at a low point, fires back at the press.”
▪ The Hill: How politicians have reacted to Greene’s resignation.
FLORIDA’S OFFSHORE GOP RIFT: Florida Republicans are fuming as the Trump administration proposes to open up new drilling in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, The Hill's Rachel Frazin reports.
“The new maps released today by @SecretaryBurgum and @Interior outlining potential new offshore oil drilling sites in the Gulf of America are HIGHLY concerning—and we will be engaging directly with the department on this issue,” wrote Sen. Ashley Moody (R-Fla.) in a post on the social platform X.
“Preserving our state’s natural beauty is deeply important to the millions who call the Sunshine State home, our visitors, and those whose livelihoods depend on tourism,” Moody wrote.
The office of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) also criticized the plan, noting that in 2020, President Trump blocked drilling off the state’s coasts.
“Our Administration supports the 2020 Presidential Memorandum and urges the Department of Interior to reconsider and to conform to the 2020 Trump Administration policy,” Molly Best, a spokesperson for DeSantis, said in a statement to The Hill.
On Thursday, the Trump administration proposed a massive expansion of U.S. offshore drilling, which would include opening up new drilling in the eastern gulf, as well as in California.
BOLTON TRIAL’S SLOW PACE: Former national security adviser John Bolton’s trial is a long way off, The Hill’s Ella Lee reports.
Bolton, who faces 8 counts of transmitting national defense information and 10 counts of retaining it, is battling a prosecution resting on classified documents, which follows a different discovery process than the average case, dictated by the Classified Information Procedures Act (CIPA).
CIPA Section 4 says the court may authorize prosecutors to “delete,” summarize or admit to relevant facts about certain classified information from documents that will be made available to the defense. This process would conclude in a status conference that would be set for October 2026.
Bolton’s slow-moving case stands in stark contrast to the proceedings against Comey and New York Attorney General Letitia James (D), two other adversaries of the president facing court battles.
While Bolton’s case is more complex, court filings and hearings have been more frequent in the cases against James and Comey.
