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Saturday, October 31 | By Jared Gans and Sarah Fortinsky

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In today's issue:

▪ Close finish looks likely in California

▪ Status of Iran talks uncertain

▪ Trump drops ‘anti-weaponization’ fund

▪ Airline industry pushes back on Mullin

© The Associated Press | Godofredo A. Vásquez and Ethan Swope

California’s 3-horse race for governor comes down to the wire

It’s primary day in California, and the primary field for governor appears to be down to a three-horse race — with two candidates advancing to the general election in November.

Biden-era Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra (D), the state’s former attorney general, has pulled ahead in recent polling as billionaire Tom Steyer (D) and former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton (R) are vying for second place.

California’s jungle primary system means the two candidates receiving the greatest number of votes — regardless of party affiliation — will advance.

No clear Democratic frontrunner has emerged in the race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), previously raising some concern that two Republicans could emerge from the field of dozens of candidates.

It’s now the GOP that could get locked out, if Becerra and Steyer edge out Hilton.

In the latest Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey, conducted late last week, Becerra gets support from 28 percent of likely primary voters, while Steyer is backed by 22 percent and Hilton by 21 percent.

Just two weeks earlier, the race was much narrower: with Becerra getting 19 percent, and Steyer and Hilton each getting 17 percent support.

The field changed dramatically after former Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), who had begun to emerge as the frontrunner in the race, ended his candidacy amid allegations of sexual misconduct, which he denied. The scandal breathed new life into Becerra’s campaign after the March poll had the former secretary polling at just 3 percent.

“Xavier Becerra maintains frontrunner status in the final Emerson poll ahead of Tuesday’s primary, while Tom Steyer and Steve Hilton both have paths to advance to the November general election,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement.

Other candidates could help sway the outcome as well. Riverside County, Calif., Sheriff Chad Bianco (R) is polling at 12 percent in the latest Emerson poll.

“If Chad Bianco’s support erodes by Election Day, Hilton is positioned to benefit,” Kimball added.

Former Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.), once seen as a formidable opponent on the left, has seen her support fall dramatically — from 16 percent in September to 5 percent in the latest poll. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan (D) is also polling at 5 percent.

▪ The Hill: Tense California governor’s race comes to a head.

▪ The Hill: Sexting scandal is latest controversy for Graham Platner.

OTHER PRIMARIES TO WATCH: In Los Angeles, Mayor Karen Bass (D) seems likely to advance to the general election but faces two drastically different potential general election matchups.

Republican reality television personality Spencer Pratt and progressive city Council member Nithya Raman are in a close contest for second. According to Decision Desk HQ's polling average, Bass leads with 26.4 percent, followed by Pratt at 18.4 and Raman at 15.9.

Meanwhile on the other coast, a handful of Democrats are competing in a primary to challenge Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-N.J.), who has been absent from Congress for nearly three months because of an undisclosed medical issue.

Democrats are increasingly targeting his New Jersey district, which Cook Political Report rates a “toss up.” Kean faces no primary opponent today, but four Democrats are competing to face him in November.

In Iowa, Democrats will have to choose between state Sen. Zach Wahls and state Rep. Josh Turek to take on likely GOP candidate Rep. Ashley Hinson in the race for U.S. Senate. The Democratic primary has grown bitter, with Wahls trying to cast Turek as beholden to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and the party establishment.

The race for governor in Iowa is also one to watch, as recent polling suggests Rep. Randy Feenstra’s (R-Iowa) initial lead has all but disappeared, despite having the highest name recognition. But a late endorsement from President Trump may put Feenstra over the hurdle for a matchup with Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand in November.

Smart Take 
with Blake Burman

Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Markwayne Mullin reiterated Monday that potentially moving some U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agents out of airports is an option, but only if local and state leaders in sanctuary jurisdictions don’t work with DHS.

“Yes, we have a plan to initiate it, if required," Mullin told reporters.

Former acting DHS Secretary Chad Wolf told me he never considered that possibility but added that circumstances are different now.

“I hope that's a last resort for a variety of different reasons, but I think it's a real consideration that if local officials aren't going to allow local police to step in and do their job, then DHS is going to have to do it.” Wolf said.

How Mullin handles the agency going forward will shape how Americans continue to view DHS. Keep in mind, public perception of the agency remains a challenge for the administration heading in November. For example, in a recent Pew Research Center poll, 52 percent of Americans believe deportations have gone too far, with 31 percent saying it's about the right amount.

 

Burman hosts "The Hill" weeknights, 6p/5c on NewsNation.

3 Things to Know Today

 
  1. The Trump administration issued a final rule requiring most Medicaid beneficiaries between ages 19 and 64 to prove they work, complete community service or participate in a work program to receive benefits. The rule establishes standards states must use to implement the requirements from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
  2. Maine Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner will meet with Senate Democrats in Washington, D.C., today, for a “longstanding meeting,” a campaign official told NewsNation. It comes after revelations that Platner sent sexually explicit messages to other women while married.
  3. At least 16 people have been killed, and dozens of others were wounded, in a wave of Russian attacks on the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv. The bombardment comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned Moscow was preparing a major attack.

LEADING THE DAY

© The Associated Press | Jacquelyn Martin

ON OR OFF? Trump and Iran are giving conflicting messages on whether talks on ending the war have been suspended amid an Israeli incursion into neighboring Lebanon.

The Iranian state-affiliated media outlet Tasnim News Agency reported Monday that Tehran cut off talks over Israel’s military offensive against the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah, calling it a violation of the ongoing ceasefire with the U.S.

But Trump said Iran didn’t inform the U.S. that it was suspending talks, maintaining in a post on Truth Social that negotiations are continuing at a “rapid pace.”

The president later said he spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a “very productive” conversation. He said no Israeli troops will be going to the Lebanese capital of Beirut and any troops on their way have “already been turned back.”

According to Axios, Trump called Netanyahu “crazy” on the call and asked “what the f--- are you doing?” The Israeli leader had ordered attacks on Hezbollah-controlled neighborhoods in southern Beirut earlier on Monday.

He added in his Truth Social post that he had a “very good” call with Hezbollah, who agreed that “all shooting will stop — That Israel will not attack them, and they will not attack Israel.”

The Hill’s Julia Manchester and Filip Timotija report that Iran appears to be using Lebanon to divide Trump and Netanyahu, whose domestic political standing depends on projecting strength against Hezbollah.

“If they can get to a place where they have persuaded the administration that Israel is the problem here…they think that will make Trump put pressure on Bibi to stop and hopefully create a greater rift,” a former Trump administration official said.

▪ The Hill: Senators still hope for details on deal.

▪ BBC: Iran attacks have damaged 20 U.S. military sites since war began.

STANDING DOWN: The Trump administration is dropping its push to create an “anti-weaponization” fund for alleged victims of political prosecutions — for now, at least — amid bipartisan pushback to the proposal.

The decision follows a meeting between Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) at the White House to discuss the Justice Department’s controversial $1.776 billion fund. Its creation has proved to be a major stumbling block as Republicans have tried to advance a reconciliation bill to fund immigration enforcement agencies for the next few years.

In a tense meeting with acting Attorney General Todd Blanche about the fund before last week’s recess, Republicans warned they wouldn’t move forward with the bill until their concerns about the fund were resolved.

Among the chief concerns has been the potential that those convicted of crimes during the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack could be eligible to receive payouts.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters Monday that he hoped the fund would be dropped entirely.

Democrats still plan to force Republicans to take votes related to the fund if the reconciliation bill reaches the Senate floor this week, which now seems more likely.

▪ The Hill: Republicans see path forward on reconciliation.

▪ The Hill: Johnson navigates packed legislative agenda.

NEW BOSS: Officials announced Rosario “Pete” Vasquez will serve as the new chief of U.S. Border Patrol.

Vasquez, who has served Border Patrol for more than 26 years, is succeeding Mike Banks, who announced last month that he would step down from his role after a year and a half in the job.

Vasquez’s appointment marks the latest instance of turnover in federal immigration enforcement agencies.

Todd Lyons formally left his role as acting head of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement on Sunday after announcing he would be taking on a new role in the private sector. Dave Venturella took over as the new acting chief.

And Markwayne Mullin took leadership of the Department of Homeland Security in late March after the Senate confirmed him as secretary, replacing Kristi Noem.

▪ The Guardian: Immigrant rights groups mobilize across World Cup host cities.

VACCINE INVESTMENT: Moderna is receiving a $50 million investment from a global health organization to develop a vaccine for the strain of Ebola that is rapidly spreading through central Africa.

The funding from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations will support development and initial clinical testing of Moderna’s investigational vaccine against the Bundibugyo strain. The vaccine is being developed using Moderna’s mRNA platform.

The announcement comes as the outbreak has already caused more than 900 cases and 220 suspected deaths, mostly in the Congo. The true numbers may be higher than have been recorded.

There are currently no licensed vaccines available for this strain and none in clinical development. If Moderna’s early data is positive, the funding would also support manufacturing and progression to later-stage trials.

▪ Reuters: Hundreds protest planned U.S. Ebola quarantine facility in Kenya.

SEE YOU IN COURT: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth indicated the Pentagon plans to appeal a ruling restricting the department's ban on transgender military service members to the Supreme Court.

A divided federal appeals panel ruled the Pentagon is unconstitutionally expelling troops currently in the military because they are transgender, though it permitted a ban against transgender individuals seeking to enlist.

"See you at SCOTUS," Hegseth said in a post on the social platform X.

The case stems from an executive order Trump issued soon after returning to office instituting the ban. The Supreme Court rejected an earlier challenge to the ban in an emergency ruling last year.

 

WHEN & WHERE

  • The president will participate in a policy meeting at 2 p.m. He will participate in a pre-taped interview at 3 p.m. and additional policy meetings at 4:30 p.m. and 5:30 p.m.
  • The Senate will meet at 10 a.m.
  • The House will convene at noon.
 

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ZOOM IN

© The Associated Press | David Zalubowski

NEW NORMAL: Trump’s narrative about the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack has increasingly become the dominant one within the GOP as few detractors within the party remain in office.

The Hill’s Helen Huiskes reports the latest round of primaries has almost entirely completed the slow replacement of Republicans who openly condemn the Jan. 6 attack and denounce Trump’s false claims of widespread fraud in the 2020 election.

Some of the most recent examples include the defeat of Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial following the attack, in his primary last month. Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (R), who pushed to overturn former President Biden’s victory in the state in 2020, advanced to a runoff for governor over Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who resisted Trump’s pressure.

The developments come as former elections clerk Tina Peters was released from prison Monday after receiving a commutation from Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D). But Peters isn’t showing signs of remorse for her crime of granting unauthorized access to the country’s election equipment.

“I know the Democrats are going to cheat,” Peters told Steve Bannon on his show “War Room.”

“No one’s really addressing the problem that I spent my time in prison as retribution for, and that was exposing the election machines that allow the votes to be flipped,” she said.

Polis commuted Peters’s nine-year sentence last month to much backlash from fellow Democrats in Colorado, after determining that her sentence was overly harsh.

▪ The Colorado Sun: Corrections officials mum on Peters’s parole conditions.

▪ The New York Times: Peters’s release divides Colorado city.

The Hill Insider launches July 2026 — the waitlist is open now

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ELSEWHERE

© The Associated Press | Mark Schiefelbein

PUSHING BACK: National security experts and the airline industry are pushing back on Mullin’s threat to pull CBP from airports in so-called sanctuary cities.

The secretary said last week that he was “drawing up plans” to no longer have CBP officers process international flights in cities where “the local radical-left Democrats aren’t allowing us to do our jobs.”

Airlines for America, the industry trade group, is one of several voices warning the secretary of the “devastating” consequences of moving forward with such a plan.

“Reducing CBP staffing at major airports would have a devastating effect on the airline and tourism industries, causing a significant operational disruption to carriers, travelers and the flow of international cargo,” Airlines for America told The Hill's Rebecca Beitsch.

Juliette Kayyem, who served as assistant secretary for intergovernmental affairs at DHS under the Obama administration, said Mullin’s threat is going to hurt Republicans, along with Democrats, who are traveling on international flights.

“This idea that this is only going to hurt blue people in blue cities is shockingly naive ... it’s either shockingly naive or dumb. And my only hope is that the airline industries are making this case a little bit more diplomatically than I’ve been,” Kayyem said.

▪ The New York Times: How Delta steered around airline industry chaos.

OPINION

  • Graham Platner, Ken Paxton and the populists’ scandal dilemma, The Hill’s Chris Stirewalt writes.
  • When insurers deny care, patients pay the price, former Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio) writes in The Hill.

THE CLOSER

© The Associated Press | Adam Gray

And finally … New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani (D) signed an executive order Monday repealing bedtimes for the city’s students ahead of the start of the NBA Finals featuring the New York Knicks.

The Knicks are set to face the San Antonio Spurs beginning Wednesday in the team’s first finals appearance since 1999. The Spurs defeated the Knicks that year.

“Bedtime is repealed! All of you can watch the Finals,” Mamdani said after signing the order, surrounded by a group of children, who later signed the order themselves with their handprints.

Mamdani previously vowed to hold watch parties throughout the city to make gathering to watch the finals easier and safer.

The Knicks swept the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals to advance to the NBA Finals, while the Spurs bested the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 7 over the weekend to advance.

 

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