The deal to stop fighting between the United States and Iran was showing new signs of life Monday morning after a head-spinning weekend, with negotiators expressing optimism about a path toward reaching a permanent deal to end the conflict after their first day of talks in Switzerland.
That doesn’t mean there aren’t serious obstacles to keeping the deal in place.
Stubborn fighting between Israel and the Iranian-backed militia group Hezbollah in Lebanon that flared over the weekend remains perhaps the most serious threat.
Conflicting signals over the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the blockage of which shot energy prices up around the world, also underscored the fragility of the talks.
Still, diplomats leaving the talks very early Monday morning in Switzerland put a decidedly positive spin on the negotiations, reporting progress.
They specifically pointed to a new negotiating cell set up to deal with the sticky problem of Lebanon, where the fighting is between two parties that are aligned with Iran and the U.S. but are not actually parties to the initial peace deal.
Qatar and Pakistan, the two intermediaries between Iran and the U.S., emphasized in a joint statement that progress was made through the creation of a “High Level Committee” to provide political oversight of the mediation.
The committee agreed to a “roadmap” toward reaching a final deal within 60 days, the countries said. Qatar and Pakistan said they appreciated the U.S. and Iran for their “ongoing commitment to diplomacy and a peaceful resolution to the conflict.”
“Chief negotiators will report regularly to the High Level Committee and lead working groups focused on nuclear, sanctions, and a monitoring and dispute resolution group to ensure the effective implementation of the MoU, and on other matters,” Qatar and Pakistan said in the statement.
The parties also agreed to a “de-confliction cell” that will include the U.S. and Iran and Lebanon, facilitated by Pakistan and Qatar. This cell will “ensure the adherence of the termination of military operations in Lebanon as per the MOU.”
The statement said technical talks will continue this week, though it was not clear if Iran and the U.S. would keep officials in Switzerland for those talks.
These hopeful signs came after the negotiations seemed to get off to a stumbling start, with Iran insisting there must be an end to the fighting in Lebanon, and with Tehran on Saturday saying the Strait of Hormuz was being closed once again. The strait’s opening had appeared to be one of the few immediate positives from the signing of the MOU late last week.
Before the statement from the mediators was released, a senior U.S. diplomat engaged in the negotiations also focused on the positive Sunday night, noting that “contrary to rampant false reporting,” Iran was at the table and the negotiations were continuing.
The negotiations took place at a resort outside of Lucerne, Switzerland. Vice President Vance, U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner are leading the U.S. delegation.
The U.S. diplomat said the sides were at work “clarifying some of the confusing messaging from Iran on the Strait and building deconfliction mechanisms to ensure the Strait will remain full open.”
The official also said the sides were working to enforce the ceasefire in Lebanon, something that will require cooperation from both Israel and Hezbollah.
The MOU set up talks on Iran’s nuclear program, the issue that triggered U.S. bombing of Iran last summer and the new war that began in March. Iran has insisted it will not work to get a nuclear weapon, though that vow just matches previous statements the regime has made in the past.
“We’ve had robust discussions on all elements of the nuclear deal,” the U.S. diplomat said. “We plan to continue working through each of these issues and using today’s work as a starting point for ongoing talks going forward.”
Progress in ending fighting between Israel and Hezbollah seemed to be made over the weekend when Israel’s government said its military would only take defensive actions against Hezbollah. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to root out the militant group and is under pressure from his political coalition to not give in on Israel’s security for U.S. interests.
The exchange of fire between Hezbollah and Israel caused a delay in the Switzerland meeting from Friday to Sunday and led to Iran’s top military command saying that it would once again close the Strait of Hormuz, arguing that the Israeli strikes constitute a violation of the ceasefire.
The U.S. disputed that the waterway was closed, with U.S. Central Command saying commercial ship travel through the strait increased on Saturday because of support from the U.S. military.
It was also unclear how patient Trump would be with the talks. The president is under tremendous pressure from Republicans to find an end to the war given the trouble the party is in ahead of the midterm elections. But he also has much at stake in terms of his legacy with the war and has signaled his determination to win an outcome that will prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapon.
Trump warned Iran with sharp words Sunday as Vance arrived in Switzerland that the U.S. would resume strikes if Hezbollah didn’t stand down.
“Iran must immediately stop their highly paid PROXIES in Lebanon from causing trouble. If they don’t, we’ll hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder!!!” Trump said on Truth Social.
In one sign of some pessimism, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a close Trump ally and hawkish member of Congress, said on Sunday that he thinks the tentative peace deal will fail.
“If you don’t have a diplomatic path through the MOU, then you have to go to war, or some other form of coercion,” he said.
The president also added more pressure onto the parties Saturday ahead of the Switzerland talks with a threat to impose tolls in the strait if no agreement is reached within 60 days. The MOU that the U.S. and Iran signed gave them that timeframe to reach a deal on Iran’s nuclear program.
The plan, which includes an immediate waiver on U.S. sanctions on Iran and the creation of a $300 billion fund for the county’s reconstruction, has been met with skepticism from Trump’s critics and even some allies. The Hill’s Rachel Frazin and Mallory Wilson report the waivers on Iranian oil sanctions are angering war hawks, including some of the president’s supporters.
Vance has been saddled with the tough task of reaching a deal with Iran on its nuclear program, even as the problems in Lebanon and with the strait re-emerge.
Vance’s role has all kinds of 2028 overtones. While Secretary of State Marco Rubio has taken a less public role in the talks so far, Vance has become the face of negotiations.
As The Hill’s Amie Parnes noted in a report on Saturday, Trump joked last week that if the talks succeed, he would take credit, but if they fail, he would blame Vance.
▪ The Hill: GOP bullish on political impact of Iran MOU.
▪ The Washington Post: Deal to end fighting too late for farmers.
