Republican eyes are shifting to Florida today as voters head to the polls to choose a successor to term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis (R).
The Sunshine State has undergone a significant political transformation over the past eight years since DeSantis was first elected, shifting from one of the top battleground states in the country to a solid Republican stronghold.
Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), who is endorsed by President Trump, is hoping to continue the GOP’s dominance in the state with a win in the primary Tuesday, but a few opponents, including a highly controversial far-right challenger, are seeking to pull off an upset.
If he wins the nomination, as he’s favored to do, he’ll certainly be the favorite in the general election. Donalds would be Florida’s first Black governor.
The three-term congressman has the support of the most influential figure in the Republican Party in Trump, along with many other notable GOP officials, including Florida’s two senators, Rick Scott and Ashley Moody.
But Donalds is facing opposition from several high-profile rivals, including Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and investment firm founder James Fishback. Former state House Speaker Paul Renner is also seeking the nomination.
Despite being significantly outraised and outspent by Donalds, Fishback is hoping he can pull off a stunning upset after a tense campaign that has been frequently defined by inflammatory comments and personal attacks.
Fishback, who is white with Colombian heritage, has made several race-related remarks throughout his campaign, including some pointed at Donalds. He has repeatedly referred to Donalds as a “slave” to corporate interests and donors, referred to him as “By’rone” in a social media post and alleged Donalds’s election would turn Florida into a “Section 8 ghetto.”
Fishback has also positioned himself as a harsh critic of U.S. support for Israel and faced accusations of antisemitism. He’s used the term “goyslop” to refer to fast food, invoking an online term that’s caught on among antisemitic sectors of the internet.
Fishback has denied he’s antisemitic and vowed to represent all Floridians regardless of background if elected. But his comments spurred an organization allied with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) to spend $400,000 on an ad campaign targeting Fishback for alleged antisemitism.
Polling has been split on how large Donalds’s lead is.
Some surveys have shown Donalds ahead by double digits, approaching or surpassing 50 percent. But a few others have shown a much closer race.
In the latest public poll of the race, Donalds led by less than 5 points, with 34 percent support to Fishback’s 29.4 percent. The Decision Desk HQ polling average shows Donalds more comfortably ahead with 37 percent support, followed by Fishback with 18.4 percent and Collins with 16.6 percent.
Adding to the uncertainty is DeSantis, who has declined to endorse any candidate to succeed him. He remains highly popular among Florida Republicans, and there’s some signs that he may be using his influence against Donalds.
The relationship between DeSantis and Donalds has reportedly worsened in the past couple years, stemming in part from Donalds’s decision to endorse Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary over his own state’s governor.
CNN reported DeSantis has worked for months publicly and privately to argue Donalds isn’t fit to replace him, even sharing his concerns with Trump, a person close to DeSantis told the outlet.
But DeSantis has largely stayed out of the race publicly otherwise and has not thrown his support behind any of Donalds’s opponents. He did praise Renner in comments earlier this month but stopped short of an endorsement.
While Donalds appears on track to win the nomination, a strong showing from Fishback could quickly put Florida on the map for Democrats this November.
Former Rep. David Jolly, who served as a Republican but has since joined the Democratic Party, is viewed as the favorite to win the party's nomination for governor.
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ALSO ON TAP: Florida is also holding primaries for its seats in the House after lawmakers revised the state’s congressional map this spring to increase the number of Republican-held seats.
That resulted in a scramble among the state’s congressional Democrats, as some chose to jump districts to keep their chances of staying in Congress alive, while others are choosing to battle it out in their home district against tougher odds.
Two of those Democrats are Reps. Jared Moskowitz, who is trying to fend off a democratic socialist challenger in a battleground district, and Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who is running in a plurality Black district, frustrating some parts of the Democratic base, The Hill’s Julia Mueller reports.
And Trump’s endorsement power will be tested again as controversial Rep. Cory Mills tries to hold on to win the GOP nomination for another term despite a House Ethics Committee investigation into him, The Hill’s Caroline Vakil reports.
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